This Sunday, March 2, another lengthy, way-too-long awards season will end at the 97th Academy Awards. It’s been a season full of angst, headlined by the Emilia Perez online discourse, with the film and its lead’s Twitter account being smeared beyond repair. Then, throw in some intimacy coordinator discussion, controversial A.I. use, and a movie about some Cardinals who vape.
This awards season had it all.
I’ve been covering the Academy Awards for the past few and have been watching them since I was about 11 years old. I can say with confidence that this is the most unpredictable awards season that I’ve encountered. It seems every precursor is going a different way, making this Sunday night completely mutable, which is how it should be for the viewers.
Without further ado, here are my predictions for every category at the 97th Academy Awards.
• • • • •
Best Picture
Nominees: Anora, Nickel Boys, I’m Still Here, Emilia Perez, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Brutalist.
- Will Win: Anora
- Could Win: Conclave
- Should Win: Anora
Since its Palme D’Or moment at the Cannes Film Festival in May of this past year and then ramping up into its theatrical release, Sean Baker’s Anora has been the steady front runner placeholder this awards season. It never quite felt right due to the subject matter, but Anora still remains the film that I really haven’t seen anyone completely dislike. The film took home top prizes at the major guilds PGA, DGA, and WGA, which solidified the status of the true frontrunner going into Sunday night.
I still have some cautious optimism about Anora, but trying to buy into Conclave taking home Best Picture is just a bit difficult, even after the SAG ensemble and BAFTA best film wins, is there really that much passion for it to garner enough number 1 votes on a preferential ballot? I’m not quite sure.
Anora would be one of the best Best Picture winners since Parasite swept at the 2020 ceremony. If you know me in any capacity, it’s no secret as to how much I love this film and Baker’s work. This is the culmination of an obsessor to the medium and would be a substantial night for the true artists in this industry.
Best Director
- Nominees: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
- Will Win: Sean Baker
- Could Win: Brady Corbet
- Should Win: Brady Corbet
This race has bounced around quite a bit this season. At the Golden Globes this past January, Brady Corbet took home the prize for Best Director which had many pundits and armchair predictors alike calling for the start of a sweep in this category, especially given how momentous the speech was along with just the sole merit achievement that is The Brutalist. Then, things got flipped around when Sean Baker won the DGA prize for achievement in directing, which is arguably the most important precursor for this category at the Oscars.
To me, it makes complete sense that Baker will be taking home this award. He’s arguably the biggest household name of 21st century American independent cinema and this feels like the culmination and apex of Baker’s career. Although, it would still not shock me if the director’s branch opts for Corbet considering their taste tends to be a bit more refined than the Academy as a whole. Either of these two would be fantastic winners, but hearing about Corbet’s journey with The Brutalist and the sacrifices he and the crew made to get this titanic of a film finished is incredibly moving. To me, stories like his embody the true meaning of this Oscar.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
- Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
- Will Win: Adrien Brody
- Could Win: Timothee Chalamet
- Should Win: Adrien Brody
It’s difficult to describe the feeling of witnessing greatness in the moment. Whether it’s with athletes or artists, you almost just know in your soul that something is rubbing you a different way. That’s kinda how I felt walking out of the Toronto International Film Festival screening of The Brutalist back in September. Adrien Brody’s performance is nothing short of moving, even the simple moments of him taking up the screen made me teary eyed. His weight, his embodiment of the character, his dedication, it’s all quite powerful and I believe would be one of the best winners in the Academy’s history. Winning every major precursor outside of SAG and having the Academy favoring veterans in the industry has me doubting a surprise Chalamet win.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
- Nominees: Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
- Will Win: Mikey Madison
- Could Win: Demi Moore
- Should Win: Mikey Madison
Easily one of the toughest categories of the night for me, but I think going against the grain and narrative here is the risky choice. Demi Moore is the clear frontrunner in this category for her daring performance in The Substance, but I think the BAFTA loss to Mikey Madison is something to note. While the Academy loves to reward a comeback narrative–most notably Brendan Fraser just a couple years ago–is Demi Moore really the titanic Hollywood figure the narrative is making her out to be? I wouldn’t say she’s overdue for an Oscar and find the film could be a bit challenging for a good bit of members to get through.
It would be a fairly substantial night for Anora, but a Mikey Madison win makes the most sense to me and I need to take a few chances here. The BAFTA win is key, the film is much stronger being our most likely Best Picture winner, and Madison’s performance is undeniably brilliant.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
You can start etching Kieran Culkin’s name on the gold statue now.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Quite possibly being the only Oscar winner for Emilia Perez on Sunday Night, Zoe Saldana is poised to win her first gold after winning every major precursor. Although, I’ll be on the edge of my seat for a Monica Barbaro win if the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez is too strong to defer.
Best Original Screenplay
This is certainly looking to be Sean Baker’s safest win of the night for Anora, the WGA win is massive. As a runner up, I could see A Real Pain surprise here since it aligns more closely with the past winners in this category. A film winning two Oscars without a Best Picture nomination isn’t as uncommon as one would think.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave is a pretty massive favorite here and it would be unwise to bet against it. It’s one of the more relevant and memorable screenplays of the year, but I could totally see a Nickel Boys upset here which would really shake up how we view the voting body. More niche, auteur driven winners? The Oscars do love rewarding a writer-director in these screenplay categories.
Best Cinematography
I’d say there are four contenders here, but The Brutalist has looked poised to take home the gold all season. Coupled with Vistavision and the massive scale for a film made for under $10 million, this would be well deserved for cinematographer Lol Crawley. Watch out for an upset with Maria which won the ASC precursor.
Best Costume Design
Wicked. — Next!
Best Film Editing
This is the toughest category of the night for me. The easy way out here is to go with Conclave, which won the BAFTA award for editing and tends to be a strong precursor. Yet, something is holding me back from predicting it. It’s not entirely the type of film that would win best editing, as the branch likes to go for big action spectacles with fast cars and a plethora of cuts. This is why I’ll be going out on a limb here and predicting Wicked to make a big upset in the category. A whimsy musical with plenty of sound fits the bill for an Academy editing win.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
This category tends to be a strong link to the leading actor categories, which would mean Demi Moore’s chances of winning an Oscar are very strong if we see The Substance take home this award early in the show. If you’ve seen the film, you’ll understand why this is such a big favorite heading into the show. Perhaps a Wicked upset could loom?
Production Design
Wicked has been strong in this category all season long and the set pieces are all too memorable for this not to win, but if the film proves to be a lot weaker than expected with the Academy, keep an eye out on The Brutalist which did a lot more with a lot less.
Best Score
In a just world, Challengers would be taking this home, but The Brutalist would be a phenomenal winner. That opening scene? Chills.
Best Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Perez still seems safe to predict even with all of the controversy weakening the film overall, but maybe this is the year the Academy decides to award Diane Warren so they can stop nominating her every year?
Best Sound
I’m confident this will be one of two wins for Dune: Part Two on Sunday night. The film won sound in the Feature Effects/Foley category at the Sound Editors’ Golden Reel Awards, which is the strongest precursor for this award at the Oscars. Although, I’d say A Complete Unknown is a more well liked film with the Academy and has some terrific sound work. They like music!
Best Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two — Maybe the safest bet of the night?
Best Animated Feature
Incredibly tough category. The Wild Robot is the slight favorite here, but I’m predicting Flow to take this home. In my opinion, there is a lot more passion for the latter.
Best Documentary Feature
No Other Land — It would really suck if this didn’t win; such an important film!
Best International Film
All season long this was looking like Emilia Perez’s award to lose, but due to the recent controversy and strong passion that I’m Still Here possesses, it’s not looking good for the former.
Best Animated Short
Wander to Wonder — Look out for Yuck as well.
Best Documentary Short
I Am Ready, Warden is the type of short film that you’ll watch and say “meh,” which means that it’ll probably win an Oscar. Incident would be a great winner!
Best Live Action Short
A Lien — There isn’t a more topical short film this year.
• • • • •
I’m just really glad this awards season is over. Thanks for reading!
