This Sunday, March 15th, will be the end of yet another overlong awards season at the 98th Academy Awards. I’m not quite sure why the Academy keeps pushing this ceremony further into the year, but this move has certainly kept the conversation going and has had the minds of pundits across the internet blundered and quite frankly – bored.
Aside from these grievances, it’s been ‘one battle after another’ as the industry potentially gets ready to shower esteemed teen prodigy turned father of cinema, Paul Thomas Anderson, with a night he won’t forget. But, lurking in the shadows are some twins from Chicago along with some Irish vampires that are looking to spoil the night in Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending horror film Sinners.
Without further ado, here are my predictions for every category at the 98th Academy Awards.
Nominees: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams, The Secret Agent, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, Sentimental Value
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Since the outpour of through-the-roof acclaim for Paul Thomas Anderson’s political action blockbuster One Battle After Another back in September of last year, it has been the steady frontrunner for the Best Picture prize at the Oscars. The film has all the ingredients of a gold statue cocktail: an overdue director that has never won an Oscar, overtly political that resonates with the times, technical marvels everywhere, and showy performances down the billing. It has also won pretty much every single Best Picture precursor besides the Screen Actor’s Guild Best Ensemble award–which tends to go for more populist choices, nevertheless, One Battle has an unprecedented package.
Although, since the SAG Ensemble win for Sinners combined with Michael B. Jordan’s upset at Best Actor, the film has certainly sprayed a bit of momentum into the air. Many pundits and engaged awards enthusiasts on social media feel that Sinners can potentially pull off a Parasite-like upset since it has surged in the last few days of Oscar voting. Now, I certainly am not discounting this possibility, but how can I predict this prospect solely off of vibes? One Battle has the edge in nearly every single guild and has the potential for a package of: supporting actor, editing, cinematography, screenplay, and director–how would it lose picture in this case?
I’m simply chalking this one up to an overlong awards season and frontrunner fatigue from fans. Let’s not overthink it. Give me One Battle After Another.
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Could Win: Ryan Coogler
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
A long overdue celebration of Paul Thomas Anderson will be happening here. The heir to Altman-esque style of cinema has won every single major director precursor and anything other than a PTA win would be the biggest upset in Oscar history.
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Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Could Win: … anyone?
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
I have no idea what to do with this race! It’s been a war in my mind in terms of how often I switch sides and there’s simply no right answer here. Let’s try to break it down.
Timothee Chalamet shot out of a cannon at the start of awards season for his sweaty performance as determined table tennis champion of the world, Marty Mauser, in Marty Supreme. He picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for his career gem and looked to be on his way to a sweep for the Oscar … until the BAFTA awards.
The BAFTA for Best Actor was a shocker as it went to the home turf Robert Aramayo for I Swear – a British film that isn’t eligible for the Oscars until next year. Regardless of how you feel about this being a fluke win, Chalamet still lost. Then, we head to the Screen Actor’s Guild awards where Chalamet just won last year for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. In a popular upset pick leading up the ceremony, Michael B. Jordan topped Chalamet for his dual performance as twins Smoke & Stack in Sinners. This was one of the great moments of the night and has now propelled Jordan to front runner status for the Oscar.
Out of default, I will be picking Michael B. Jordan as the momentum has clearly shifted out of Chalamet’s favor. The latter hasn’t won a televised award in nearly 3 months, and Marty Supreme has seemed to have peaked early on in the season. Although, I will say my personal conflictions are struggling to see Jordan win for a performance that is so well blended into the ensemble of Sinners – but the more I contemplate it, Jordan is someone who has been in this industry for quite sometime now and would be a perfect complementary win to Ryan Coogler’s near lock in original screenplay.
An additional note here: if One Battle After Another starts to rack up more awards than expected early on, keep an eye on Leonardo DiCaprio to follow in stride. Maybe this crazy season ends in Leo getting his second Oscar? I could see it.
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Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renete Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Could Win: It’s over.
Should Win: Rose Byrne
I took an easy sweeper for granted! This is gonna be Jessie Buckley for Hamnet – arguably the safest pick of the night. She has swept every single precursor and will receive her very first Oscar on Sunday night.
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When I walked out of the theater after seeing One Battle After Another, I knew Sean Penn just delivered an all time performance for his role as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw. After winning BAFTA and SAG back to back, he’s looking good to receive his third (!) Oscar. Keep an eye on Delroy Lindo for Sinners if the passion does prove to translate into results.
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A true three-horse race here. Amy Madigan has the best win package with a Critics Choice Award and SAG – on top of a veteran narrative for her iconic role in Weapons as Aunt Gladys. My gut is telling me to go with Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another though, as she is in the Best Picture frontrunner and would make sense as a pairing to Sean Penn. While Taylor only has a Golden Globe, I’m just struggling to go with Madigan as she is the only nominee for her movie – which continues to be a not very good sign going into the night.
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This will be Ryan Coogler for Sinners. One of the best forecasted wins of the night!
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This will be Paul Thomas Anderson’s first award of the night for One Battle After Another. After nearly 30 years of chasing his first gold statue, this will surely be an eruption of appreciation for one of the greatest artists of all time.
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After scoring wins at major guild precursors like BSC, ASC, and BAFTA – this is all but locked for Michael Bauman’s eye shattering work for One Battle After Another. Coupled with shooting in Vistavision and shots of those hypnotizing California hills, it’ll be one of the best recent wins in cinematography. With that said – like many of these technical categories – keep watch for Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work for Sinners.
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The first lock of the night for Frankenstein!
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This will be a key win for One Battle After Another. One of the most brazenly edited films in years, it’s one of the best achievements of the year as a nearly 3 hour film feels 90 minutes. A nice paired win with cinematography as well.
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Another lock for Frankenstein! Who can resist Jacob Elordi in that makeup?
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Once again – Frankenstein!
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This is arguably Sinners’ safest win of the night. It will be Ludwig Göransson’s third Oscar since 2019. A new John Williams on our hands?
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The ear worm “Golden” from the film KPop Demon Hunters will be taking this one. When the song becomes a Billboard hit, this is usually the key sign.
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I’m confident this will be F1 after picking up some key industry guild sound precursors and coinciding with the surprise Best Picture nomination. The Academy loves their racing films in this category!
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Avatar: Fire and Ash might be the biggest lock of the night.
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The Netflix sensation KPop Demon Hunters is another massive lock of the night.
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This one is tight, but I’m leaning with The Perfect Neighbor as it’s certainly the most visible and popular of the nominees. A truly arresting piece of documentary filmmaking.
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Tough one here – a true toss up between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. I’m leaning towards the latter. While Agent has plenty of passion, it’s a bit more susceptible to losing some members due to its length and slow pace (insert eyeroll). This could go either way.
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New category! I’m going with Sinners here by default. It’s the ensemble film of the year.
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Retirement Plan – The shorts can be quite unpredictable, but I found Plan to be the safest option and my personal favorite.
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All The Empty Rooms – Certainly the most topical and it brought me to tears.
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A Friend of Dorothy’s – There’s always a short film to win that has the “sweetness” and accessibility.
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That’ll do it for this year’s predictions. See you next year for Tom Cruise’s first Oscar! The 98th Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC/Hulu on March 15th at 7pm eastern.
Wyatt Allison can be found on Twitter/X @wyattartsknox or Letterboxd @filmwyatt.
